In December 2023, Adobe and Figma jointly terminated their $20 billion merger intent after more than fifteen months of review, stating “they no longer saw a viable path to regulatory approval”. Both companies emphasized that, despite extensive engagement with authorities, the deal could not move forward, and Figma confirmed it would remain independent and continue building out its product suite. Since then, its IPO was in the making, and finally launched on on 31 July 2025, with shares priced at $33 before closing their first trading day at $115.50, a 250 percent gain that valued the company at roughly $56.3 billion — more than triple the Adobe acquisition price. That outcome reiterates that IPO remains a viable exit when public markets reward growth and governance clarity.

History offers perspective. The 2021 pandemic-era surge in dealmaking often sidelined fundamentals, with valuations driven more by narratives than by cash flow or earnings. By contrast, today’s M&A cycle rests on a different footing: record levels of available capital combined with more deliberate, strategically motivated transactions. This foundation appears more sustainable, though the outlook remains tempered by regulatory scrutiny, fragile mid-market activity, and unresolved geopolitical risks.

According to Jeremy Grantham, co-founder and chief investment strategist at GMO, «the Covid stimulus bubble began to burst conventionally in 2022 — until the sudden rise of AI in late 2022 interrupted the pattern. The 2021 market had already shown classic signs of a peak: extreme euphoria, IPO and SPAC surges, and speculative leaders falling even as blue chips rose. But the launch of ChatGPT and the public awakening to AI’s potential reignited optimism, much like past technological revolutions. And many such revolutions are in the end often as transformative as those early investors could see and sometimes even more so – but only after a substantial period of disappointment during which the initial bubble bursts.»

That cycle’s echoes are evident today, with Chamath Palihapitiya — one of the most visible figures of the SPAC boom — returning to the market with a new blank-cheque vehicle. American Exceptionalism Acquisition A, his blank-cheque company targeting energy, AI, DeFi, and defense, has just filed with the SEC to raise up to $250 million in an initial public offering. Yet his earlier “SPAC King” legacy is mixed, as most of the companies he took public have since lost the majority of their market value, leaving SoFi as the only notable outlier.

These shifts, from renewed speculation in capital markets to consolidation in core industries, highlight a common challenge for leadership teams in positioning for the next wave of growth. For boards, the strategic imperative is to secure a place in the emerging AI value chain while also protecting their existing lines of business, a priority that has become non-negotiable. Only last year, nearly half of S&P 500 companies cited “AI” on their earnings calls, underscoring the pressure on leadership to articulate a strategy. Yet many early implementations have struggled to deliver returns, revealing a gap between boardroom mandates and operational outcomes. The industry is still in the early stages of disruption, but first consolidation among emerging actors will be needed across foundation models, AI infrastructure (chips and cloud), specialised applications, and agentic AI.

Whether through acquisitions, targeted investments, or reallocation of cash on hand, M&A has shifted from being opportunistic to being central to long-term corporate positioning in the current market environment.